The fundamental problem with the Drake Equation is that there’s so much false precision that “any” number or probability may be meaningless since estimates don’t account for:

1. Quantifiable Error
   We can in principle calculate this with our current data, but it is still highly limited since our data set is limited, so Drake Equation estimates can only be a statement based on observed data.
2. Fundamental Uncertainty
   All this data can be rendered meaningless with a single exception in the universe (and that exception may be us). It’s like using smooth normal distributions to describe most data, but there may outliers that exist 25 standard deviations out — simply means our models are wrong rather than actual 25 standard deviations out.