Cognitive Biases: Risk vs. Reward, and Type 1 vs. Type 2 Errors

There exists the same reward and risk profile for both police and vaccines. That’s why the same conclusions are reached for both police and vaccines.

– The ~100% of the time police and vaccines work as they should and nothing goes wrong, no one notices and these events don’t effectively exist.

– The ~0% of the time something goes wrong with police and vaccines, that’s where all the attention is focused, and considered vastly disproportionately to their relative frequency to make incommensurately representative statements.

I don’t fault anyone one bit since it’s understandable from an evolutionary psychology perspective. There’s a close relation to the commission of Type 1 and Type 2 Errors during our evolutionary history.

– Type 1 Error: False Positive
You hear a rustle in the bushes. Not taking any chances, you get scared and run away. If you’re wrong, it’s a very tiny price to pay. Your system gets flushed with adrenaline and cortisol as you experience stress. No biggie.

– Type 2 Error: False Negative
You hear a rustle in the bushes. You think “no big deal.” Turns out it’s a large animal that eats you. Cost is obviously huge. You immediately die and your genes are removed from the gene pool. Any children you have already lose a bit of protection and guidance.